September 16, 2008

12 Crisis Management Lessons from Lehman Brothers

When the media frenzy dies down from pundits that have never built a company, hired employees, or developed a mission statement about what Dick Fuld should have done; thousands of people will have lost their jobs and the issue will be what can you learn from this?

Lehman went down and it was evident in April. Why? Because of what didn’t happen…

David Einhorn asked a simple question of Lehman’s CFO, Erin Callan during a conference call with Wall Street analysts in March, 2008. Einhorn happened to be on the phone and asked a legitimate question. Answers weren’t forthcoming. So a dance began. Various people tried to tarnish Einhorn’s reputation, a month later Lehman’s shares plunged 40%.  What did Fuld do?  He sued a Marubeni a Japanese trading company 35 billion yen in unpaid fees.

In April, Einhorn announced he was shorting Lehman stock. Callan called Einhorn and asked for a copy of his speech and he complied. And Callan? She spent her time badmouthing Einhorn. Why would you do that? Try to deflect attention from issue and blame someone else? Something was drastically wrong. Lehman shorts stock too.  It didn’t make any sense. But Fuld did nothing. The stock dropped 40% and he did NOTHING!!!

What should have happened?

At this juncture, Dick Fuld should have gotten out in front of his investors, his clients, the market and he didn’t.

Study history…what did similar companies do in this situation?

When in a corporate crisis I often wonder why executives don’t study Johnson & Johnson and look to Jim Burke for leadership. Jim Burke, J&J’s Chairman learned a women in Westchester, NY died when her Tylenol capsule was laced with cyanide on February 10, 1986. This was the second crisis to occur…

In the fall of 1982, seven people died in Chicago with cyanide laced Tylenol capsules. J&J recalled the Tylenol and introduced a triple-sealed, tamper-resistant package.

This time, by Feb. 13 the Food and Drug Administration discovered a second bottle of cyanide laced capsules and warned consumers nationwide. J&J began a recall in Westchester and asked retailers nationwide to remove the capsules from the stores. J&J canceled all television ads for Tylenol and established a toll free hotline. The stock dropped $4 a share on February 14 and on Feb. 17 the company began a nationwide recall and announced the end of all nonprescription drugs sales in capsule form.

On February 18, Jim Burke went on the Donahue program and discussed the Tylenol crisis. Burke went on a national media tour even though he’s a private man and abhors the spotlight. Jim was going to do whatever needed to be done to save J&J…meetings with five other executives were confrontational because they needed to forge consensus.

Johnson & Johnson lives it’s credo, it’s ingrained in the culture of the organization, I know because I worked there. It’s not lip service. It is safety above profits. The Tylenol crisis cost about $150 million after taxes, but consumer safety that mattered most. Within the span of four years, J&J experienced two major crisis’s and what did they do?

J&J figured out enlightened self-interest. If you respect your clients, your customers–tell them the truth, look out for their interests, they’ll give you a second chance.

Wall Street can learn from Lehman and Johnson & Johnson.

All Dick Fuld had to do was get out in front of this in April, address the financial situation, support his CFO, develop a new plan of action, if there were mistakes admit them, and be realistic. He could written down his percentage of the 62 trillion notional credit default swaps (herein lies the problem–the credit default swaps!). And for those of you who haven’t read a 10K…Morgan Stanley’s and Goldman’s leverage went from 23.6 to 30.7.  And Lehman brought their leverage down.

For those of you who think Lehman was “worthless” and don’t know any better, BlackRock bought a large chunk of Lehman stock in June.  They wouldn’t have done that if Lehman was worthless.  Not BlackRock. For those of you not in the industry, BlackRock is a preeminent asset management firm known for their risk management.  The problem  was Dick Fuld’s refusal to understand what Lehman was worth!  He thought it was worth more than it was.

He should have sat down with his lieutenants and asked the question, what are our options? Instead Fuld demoted Callan, in June after raising $6 billion in new capital, after disclosing a $2.8 billion loss the quarter before, then fired a long time lieutenant and friend Joseph Gregory. Then the stock fell. What message did he send to his customers and investors?

You need to be 750 times more committed to your customers, clients and owners than anyone else to be successful. You must have integrity to your owners, your stockholders and Fuld didn’t do that.

When you are a public company your fiduciary obligation is to your stockholders, your customers and your employees. As a hedge fund your fiduciary obligation is to your investors and your employees…it’s not all about you.

How do you make sure you and your firm don’t end up like Dick Fuld and Lehman?

1. Surround yourself with good people that challenge you to mitigate executive hubris (Dick Fuld’s problem in negotiating Lehman’s worth).

2. When there is a crisis, emulate other companies that have successfully managed through a crisis

3. The minute a crisis begins, hire a consumer research company to start polling consumer and client perceptions about your organization. Order continuous polling throughout the crisis which will help you avert a crisis of consumer confidence.

4. Identify five executives on your “crisis team”.

5. Develop a risk scenarios and contingent plans.

6. Identify a Public Relations expert who can help you through the crisis (before the crisis not during!).

7. Create a culture that is committed to challenging one another.

8. Create a board of director’s that has at least one “naysayer” on it. If they’re all yes people, you’re in trouble.

9. Make sure someone on the board has P&L expertise, preferably an entrepreneur.   (forget about cronies, you see how far that got Fuld).

10. Recognize your weak spots.

11. When there is a problem, develop a plan and get out in front of the issue right away. Don’t procrastinate, which includes a media plan.

12. When people’s livelihood’s depend on you,  don’t let it be about your ego, you need to serve the greater good.

July 14, 2008

Donald Putnam – the one percent

I went to Lipper’s Hedgeworld in June 2008 and was pleasantly surprised. Donald Putnam of Grail Partners was the keynote speaker. I was fascinated with his perspective on the market, the industry, and people. He was engaging with a great sense of humor.

My first interview with him is as follows:

DP: It is the nature of the talent that the most talented are many times more talented than the slightly less talented. Bill Gross or Larry Fink, two examples you are familiar with, are not five times more talented than the next person, they are ten times more talented than the next person. They are not just more talented, but differently talented. They aren’t just working harder or just a little smarter. They have a different ear for the music, a different way for interpreting, a different way of reacting.

The typical paradigm is to think of talented business professionals in terms of people who are smart. We might be a lot more successful if we looked at people who are talented in terms of how artists are because they are often tortured by their talent. They are often incompetent in other areas, terrible with people, have fairly dramatic flaws.

But the most talented of them can no more help doing what they do than can any other artist help being an artist. They are not employees, not professionals, they’re not doing a job, so they don’t behave like normal people.

I think that’s true of hedge fund managers. The conventional wisdom is that this is portfolio management in another financial context and it’s not. It’s a particular perverse instinctual for talent to foresee how things will workout that most people don’t have. The guys who do have it, make it work in spite of all the conventional wisdom.

EN: What is the unique talent?

DP: I see a common behavior pattern, whether you are talking about extremely talented designers, business people, artists…all of them share one critical attribute which is things are that opaque to others are intuitively obvious to them. They draw different conclusions from the same facts and to some extent at the root of their success is alienation from other people and the way other people think. In the investment world we call this contrarian thinking.

The ability to be contrarian is to differ with you. How can I differ with you if I identify with you? You have to be, to some extent alienated to take a different perspective. And I think these guys generally couldn’t care less if their perspective is different. They don’t particularly enjoy being the dissonant voice, but they don’t mind it either. So they have a kind of almost semi-autistic alienation.

The very best investors are tone-deaf to the consensus. They do not hear or see the consensus view, they form their own view, their own intuition as to how the future will play out and are often willing to act on that. Sometimes they get positive reinforcement, they like to be swimming against the crowd. Not that they enjoy the confrontation with other investors, or confrontation against the consensus, some do some don’t, in fact a lot of investors, the best investors will invest their portfolios in a very specific and personal way. If you make them defend what they do or try to change the consensus because of what they do, they have no appetite for the debate.

Warren Buffet is a little bit of an exception in this regard, he is happy to teach why he believes one is better than the other. But many great investors don’t care, they don’t care if you learn it and if they communicate it.

It’s a unique perspective on life. They invest in terms of the conditions that create a certain economic outcome and the ebb and flow of arithmetic; in terms of the interactions of big economic systems, companies and portfolios with societies and particularly currencies, inflation rates and they hear that music, they hear that symphony.

They don’t hear or relate to the people who are playing those instruments, to them the first violin is not a first violinist. It’s just a first violin, all they hear is the music. They don’t have any empathic relationship to the violinist. And that alienation is in part at the root of great investing. Because the consensus is almost always wrong. It maybe wrong is a small regard and in a large regard, but if you go with the consensus, you are almost always wrong.

In Wall Street terms, the financial world has two faces, one face is outward to those who are its clients. And conformity is prized in that world. Conformity, consistency and so on. But there are no great talents any more in that side of the business, the old Merrill Lynch thundering herd, way to sell.

In a perfect world the men and the woman all dress alike, they use the same sales techniques. What you are looking at is the industrial revolution idea of the assembly line brought to the financial services. OK, that was done 100 years ago by Merrill Lynch, more than a hundred years ago and it’s working just fine and it works on a large scale. And it works on a large scale with retail channels of distribution and on a small scale within institutional channels of distribution.

On any street at 7:00, or 8, or 9 at night you can spot the equity salesman, the bond salesman, the institutional salesman, the various kind of salesman that exists. The closer you get to investment banking and investment management the closer you get to outcome driven success, as opposed to process driven success. And if you live and die by the outcomes, whether you’re an investment banker contemplating a merger, or an investment manager establishing a portfolio the more you are driven by the outcomes as opposed to the process the more you are driven by contrarian thought. Contrarian thought requires some kind of alienation from the consensus.

Differentiated by the consensus, differentiated by how they react to failure, the conventional 99% of the world doesn’t like to fail, the One Percent enjoys failing if its in the pursuit of outcomes they can enjoy identifying with. They aren’t’ emotionally involved with outcomes. They want validation of their unique perspective,

Steve Jobs was more emotionally rewarded by the consumer reaction to his Apple iphone that to the particular economics. That sense of the outcomes is similar to the top hedge fund managers.

Copyright 2007 Ev Nucci


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July 2, 2008

Mark Yusko on talent – the one percent

Ev: What makes somebody talented in your mind?

Pedigree takes many forms. Where did you study, where did you work, who did you work for, which might be one of the most important things. Who are your mentors? In fact there is a great line, look at the four people you spend the most time with, that’s who you will become. And those influences in our life have a dramatic influence on you and what you turn out to be.

People who have a strong a pedigree–it doesn’t necessarily mean going to an ivy league school–if you’re going into geology, hopefully you went to the Colorado School of Mines not Harvard, not that Harvard’s bad at geology, it’s just if you’re going to be a geologist you probably want to come out of the Colorado school of mines.

Process and philosophy. Lump those two together. Philosophy is not just an investment philosophy, but life philosophy is important; then the process of how you implement that philosophy is important.

Personality. There are characteristics of personality, I think are really important. One I talk about all the time is competitiveness. We like people to be competitive at something, I don’t really care what…debate, chess, bridge, poker, it could be a individual sport like tennis or a team sport like soccer. I look for conviction. People who don’t have a strong conviction about something are prone to inaction and prone to less good outcomes. Unless you have the courage of your conviction you’re going to get shaken out at the first sign of trouble.

Ambition is important, not all consuming, but ambitious people want to do good things in the world, whether in business, or in philanthropy, or in their family. They have ambitious goals and work hard.

Connections and some of that goes to pedigree, did you study with people who went onto to become important people, did you work for somebody who is now in a big position. Richard Rubin is a great example of that. He trained many guys on the street today. Now they have a mentor they can that has run the treasury and is a senior advisor to Citigroup. If that is your mentor you have access to things other people don’t.

One of my mentors is Julian Robertson and I tell the story that when I was talking to him one time a couple years ago and his phone rings and his secretary says you better answer it, you go next door and tell Putin that if he let’s Yusko go down the tubes there’s gone to be hell to pay. I don’t get that call. He was talking to the Kremlin. But I had the information now because I had the right mentor and relationship.

Something else that I think is critically important is what I call intellectual independence. Most people are very good at having a conclusion and then finding data to support their conclusion. Talented people search for source information and draw conclusions before they act. It also gives you great conviction if you came up with the idea as opposed to taking someone else’s idea and just accepting it at face value.

Raw intellectual horse power, intelligence is important, but not everybody I’ve met who’s in that top one percent is the most intelligent person in the room. Many of them are, but in some cases people are too smart by half. They don’t have any street smarts or savvy. So intelligence is not 1600 SATS. There is the raw intellectual horsepower intelligence, but street smarts and common sense is important.

Along with that is an openness to new ideas and a willingness to be collegial and trade ideas with other people. A lot of people are very secretive, and think that they have the only intellectual property that’s of value and I find I have very few original ideas.

Integrity, personal integrity is incredibly important to success. People who cheat at golf will cheat on you. If you’re playing golf with somebody and they use a little foot wedge to kick the ball out onto a good spot and tell you they got a four and don’t think anything of it, well, how about when you get to the end of the month and the numbers didn’t come in the way you wanted? Maybe you mark up that bond a little higher than the bid you actually you got. Cutting corners and not having personal integrity is recipe for disaster.

The most talented have a humility and humbleness that as smart as you are, they know maybe it’s not all them. They understand other people have a big impact. They understand the role of luck.

Respect for other people. Knowing the tinniest person in your organization may have the biggest idea.

Then the last one is if you are nice, people will be nice to you. I have had so many experiences in my life and career where I was nice to somebody just because and those people have been amazing to me. There is karma in the world.

Copyright 2007 Ev Nucci


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March 20, 2008

The one percent – Mark Yusko

Mark Yusko is one of the most inspirational people I’ve ever had the good fortune of knowing. Mark owns Morgan Creek Capital, a fund of funds (hedge funds). His charm, grace and style is simply refreshing.

I asked Mark what he looks for when he interviews hedge fund managers, what is important in talented people. He said, “respect for other people, knowing the tiniest person in your organization may have the biggest idea. I believe in Karma. Personal integrity is incredibly important to success, people who cheat at golf will cheat on you. You need to have balance in your life, you cannot be a workaholic.

Creative intelligence is borrowing an idea and creative brilliance is stealing an idea and taking someone else’s kernel of an idea and making it your own through research and synthesis.”


Mark inspired this book. At a breakfast in December, 2007 with Julian H. Robertson, Mark said, “there are ten thousand hedge fund managers, and only one hundred are any good.”

I asked Mark to describe a failure for me because it’s through failure or our perception of our failures that we learn the most about ourselves. It’s how we respond to failure that we learn how to succeed.

“My boss said to me ‘your trouble is your clock runs faster than other people’ and I thought that was kind of a compliment at the time. But what he was saying was that hey you have to understand that not everybody wants to run as fast as you do, not everybody wants to be challenged all the time, that you can rub people the wrong way. “


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March 10, 2008

The one percent – how they manage email, phone calls and respond to referrals

Lately I’ve been fortunate enough to work with a few billionaires. And what’s interesting is how they manage their professional lives. Their world is incestuous and referrals are golden. What’s interesting is how billionaires respond to phone calls, email, referrals. Billionaires are quicker to respond, are more generous in helping you and are generally more humble. Millionaires are slow to respond. It’s interesting how the two groups differ. You can see how the billionaire got to where he is…and the millionaire remains a millionaire. It is both interesting and fascinating to experience.

March 2, 2008

The Top One Percent in the world

How does the top one percent in the world differ from the other ninety-nine percent? One way is they focus on what they do best, but constantly reinvent themselves. Or better said are looking for the next project. What do I mean?

Yesterday I was meeting with a billionaire. He owns a real estate development company and was interested in building his equity company. We talked about John Thain and why Goldman people do so well in running other companies.

I explained “Goldman University” and 360 degree feedback. I’m not sure this billionaire is interested in 360 degree feedback, but his greatest challenge is finding and keeping talent. I told my husband he thanked me for my hustle. Here’s what I find interesting. How many people on Wall Street would actually thank me for that? My husband said maybe it was because so many people wouldn’t come out on a Saturday morning to meet him. Personally, I find that almost unfathomable. But then again, how many are working on a Sunday morning?

I think it’s my goals. Though I’m writing this book, the first question anyone would ask is, what’s your next project? I have two other books in the pipeline and a screenplay. I’m an author and a screenwriter.

Copyright 2007 Ev Nucci


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March 1, 2008

The Top One Percent in the world

“So how much would a guy like that cost? “

“He’s about $3 million a year total.”

“That’s it?”

“Yup.”

“Does he want equity?”

“It depends.”

“Did they do it?”

“Nope.”

“Why?”

“Timing”

Everything in life comes down to timing. I was at breakfast with Mr. X at. We were talking about a deal I worked on. I still can’t believe my client didn’t do the deal. My client walked away from this…it still bugs me.

“And what was this guy doing a year?”

“$50 billion”

“You’re kidding?”

“Nope.’

Copyright 2007 Ev Nucci


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March 1, 2008

The Top One Percent

“So how much does a guy like that make?”

“$60-70 million a year.” I said.

“Chump change.”

Can you imagine thinking that 60-70 million is chump change? What kind of person thinks that much money is chump change?Mr. X

I just had a breakfast meeting with Brian, founder and owner of X Properties Group.

I was supposed to meet with Brian on Thursday but I got bumped. Do you who bumped me? Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton bumped me. How cool is that? Brian said he would talk to Bill about being in my book, but I have to wait until after the election. Think I can wait? Yes…I’ll wait. Brian is also friends with Mikhail Gorbachev. He said he’d speak to him too! A little problem though, things are a little touchy in the Soviet Union. Wonder why?

Brian didn’t graduate from any ivy league school, nor any MBA program. He graduated from the school of hard knocks, the kind I like best. And you know what he said to me?

“Thanks for coming out this morning and for the hustle.”

“What do you mean?”

“My Mom hustled too and I have a lot of respect for women who have a family and hustle. I’m like you, hustling everyday. “

How can you not love a guy like Brian X? He said he’d refer me to a few more of his friends. Now that’s a great guy.

Copyright 2007 Ev Nucci


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February 29, 2008

The Top One Percent – Patrick Arbor

I interviewed Patrick Arbor for my book, “The Top One Percent” There are some people you meet at they are just electric in their radiance. That is Patrick. I met him a few years ago at a fund raiser for Chicago Mercy Home for Boys and Girls. I can understand why he served three consecutive two-year terms as chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade and presently serves as a Director of First Chicago Bank & Trust Co, a billion dollar bank holding company and Merriman Curhan Ford & Co, an American Exchange listed company. He is a Principal of the trading firm Shatkin Arbor.

Patrick has been a member of the CBOT since 1965, serving three years as Vice Chairman and another ten years as Director. He also sat for three years on the Executive Committee and Board of Directors of both the Board of Trade Clearing Corporation and the National Futures Association. Having met Patrick, it also makes perfect sense why
President Bill Clinton appointed him to the WNIS Enterprise Fund Board of Directors. He started his career as a math teacher. What’s fascinating about Patrick? He’s a veteran mountain climber, who has scaled many of the world’s tallest peaks, including Aconcagua, Mont Blanc, Mt Eiger, and Mt Kilimanjaro.

Patrick said, “Take risks, follow your dream. start your own business, invest in the most valuable asset you have…You! Abstain from alcohol, don’t smoke, exercise, live a…sound mind and sound body. Body. Be healthy, wealthy and wise.

Always trust your instincts. Don’t suppress your desire out of fear. Have a radical idea!

You learn by your mistakes, whatever your dream is, listen to it!

Greatest mistakes is not doing something you should have…you learn by your mistakes!

So whatever your dream is, that sensation deep within you, that makes you feel most alive listen to it, sometimes you forget to take the advice of the smartest person you know yourself invest in you follow your passion and take risks. Have a sense of service to your community as you enjoy success

My secret investment idea…invest in the stock market, living a long life, invest in the most valuable asset–yourself! Abstain from caffeine, alcohol and drugs.

Your body is a vessel, live long enough!

Thank you Patrick, your words are wise. Patrick’s in his 70s now and I must say I hope I stay as sharp and bright as he is!

Copyright 2007 Ev Nucci


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February 3, 2008

Big Bang World Record

Since I’m in the process of writing a book and need readers input, I’m putting the Big Bang World Record meme on Resource Economics blog…
Thank you
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*Start Copy Here*

You do not have to be tagged to play along. This game is simple and so are the rules.

1. Copy from *Start Copy Here* through *End Copy Here*

2. Add your site(s) to the list. Just be sure to post the “Big Bang” at each site you add.

3. Tag or don’t tag, your choice, however, the more tags you create the longer the list will grow.

4. Let me know your blog’s name and url by leaving me a comment HERE. I will add you to the master list. (If you would like a scroll box code, leave me your email address and I will email it to you.) Scroll Box Example. (I decided not to use the box for the Big Bang for ease of copying.)

5. Come back and copy the master list back to your site, often. This process will allow late-comers to get as much link benefit as the first ones in. Once you are on the master list people who have participated earlier will update their bookmarks and help everyone lower than them out on the list.

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Copyright 2007 Ev Nucci


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